![]() Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, INDIA Although the potential for farmland management to increase SOC over current levels is diminished when accounting for climate change, it remains important to incentivize regenerative agriculture and afforestation, because this may be the only way to avoid SOC losses by end-of-century.Ĭitation: Wiltshire S, Beckage B (2023) Integrating climate change into projections of soil carbon sequestration from regenerative agriculture. Other regenerative practices, notably rotational grazing, could maintain or slightly increase SOC through 2099, and old-growth afforestation could increase statewide stocks by up to 4.5 Mt. ![]() We find that rising temperatures decrease SOC stocks compared to static climate runs by 9.1% to 19.9% across management scenarios, leading to net SOC loss even under many regenerative farming scenarios. We use downscaled climate projections from four Global Climate Models, forced by RCP 4.5, that bracket the range of likely climate change. In 11 relatively-homogeneous Ecoregions within the study area, we run simulations for each land management scenario from 2022–2099, under both projected climate change and the static climate normal from 1991–2021. state of Vermont, comparing several regenerative farming strategies, as well as afforestation, against business-as-usual. We apply the Rothamsted Carbon model (RothC) to study agricultural land use and management transitions in the U.S. We investigate how incorporating climate change projections affects carbon sequestration and SOC stocks. Applied climate scenarios increased carbon stocks and net carbon sequestration compared to current climatic conditions.Computational models can project how changes in land use and management will affect soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks over time, but these models usually assume an unchanging climate. Differences in carbon sequestration were very small between applied management scenarios, implying that forest management should be changed more than in this study if aim is to influence carbon sequestration. This was due to ageing of forests and higher carbon densities per unit of forest land. Carbon stocks in tree biomass, soil and wood products increased in all applied management and climate scenarios, but slower after 2010❲020 than that before. In 1995❲000, when BaU scenario was applied under current climatic conditions, net primary production was 409 Tg C year❱, net ecosystem production 164 Tg C year❱, net biome production 84.5 Tg C year❱, and net sequestration of the whole system 87.4 Tg C year❱ which was equal to 7❸% of carbon emissions from fossil fuel combustion in 1990. Total amount of carbon in 1990 was 12 869 Tg, of which 94% in tree biomass and forest soil, and 6% in wood products in use. Mean annual temperature increased 2.5 ☌ and annual precipitation 5❱5% between 19 in changing climate scenario. ![]() In Business as Usual (BaU) scenario national fellings remained at the 1990 level while in Multifunctional (MultiF) scenario fellings increased 0.5❱% per year until 2020, 4 million hectare afforestation program took place between 19 and forest management paid more attention to current trends towards more nature oriented management. Two forest management and climate scenarios were applied. Altogether 27 countries and 128.5 million hectare of forests are included in the analysis. Forest inventory based carbon budgeting with large scale scenario modelling was used. ![]() 141 - 155.Ītmospheric co2 - ecosystems - cycle - fluxĪnalysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget between 19 are presented in this article. Kaipainen, T.įorest Policy and Economics (2003)2. Scenario analysis of the impacts of forest management and climate change on the European forest sector carbon budget
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